Quilty Space estimates launch shortfall of about 150 flights outside China by 2030
Quilty Space says launch supply outside China will fall about 150 flights short of demand by 2030.
Outside China, the world faces a shortfall of about 150 launches between now and 2030, according to a new report from analytics firm Quilty Space. The figure compares supply with demand from satellite operators and civil space agencies.
If US military demand is added, and SpaceX does not extend the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy program to cover increased national security needs, the shortage could double.
"What we learned is that the launch crisis is more severe than we thought and that it will not go away this decade for sure, and it might not abate until sometime late in the 2030s," said Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space.
The report lists the war in Ukraine taking Russian rockets off the Western market, Amazon Leo demand, and development delays for New Glenn, Vulcan, Neutron, Terran R and Nova. It also cites SpaceX winding down its Falcon 9 program. Quilty expects the crunch to be most acute in 2028 and then slowly improve.
Sourcearstechnica.com